What a solopreneur is, and what the statistics assume
A solopreneur is someone running a business alone, without employees, and drawing their primary income from it. The term overlaps with sole proprietorship, but the emphasis is on having grown it to the point where it supports you rather than on side income.
About the analysis
This post advances three related arguments. First, solopreneurship is growing faster than employer-business formation, and the acceleration is validated by multiple independent data sources, making it unlikely to be driven by a fraud wave. Second, both the number and share of solopreneurs reaching meaningful income thresholds is rising. And third, early signals indicate that AI is filling the capability gaps that once made hiring necessary—and doing so fast enough to show up in the income distribution. — From the statement of the three arguments the post advances
They appeared in the statistics because the rule changed in 2022
One premise has to be established first. Until 2022, the Census Bureau assumed that a business above a given revenue threshold must have employees. Even a business that declared itself a solo enterprise was automatically reclassified as an employer once income crossed a line.
That assumption broke down in the early 2020s, as solo operators posting large revenue without hiring started showing up in certain industries. So in 2022 the income thresholds were systematically raised, and counts of nonemployer businesses at higher income levels skyrocketed. What changed first was not reality but what the statistics could see.
Which means there is a methodological break running through any time series in this area. That is why you cannot simply line up the old numbers against the new ones and declare a multiple.
Until 2022, the Census Bureau assumed that businesses over a given revenue threshold must have employees. Even if a business declared itself a solo enterprise, it was automatically reclassified as an employer when it hit a certain income threshold. ／ And so in 2022, the Census Bureau systematically raised its income thresholds. The resulting counts of nonemployer businesses at higher income levels skyrocketed. — From the 2022 methodology change and the resulting jump in counts at higher income levels
About four million cleared $100,000 as of 2023
One figure gives the sense of scale. In 2023, roughly four million Americans earned their primary income as solopreneurs on over $100,000 in annual revenue. The early-2010s figure sat in the mid two-million range, so the count roughly doubled across those years.
The primary source ties this to the fact that the infrastructure enabling solo business at scale — Stripe, Substack, Kajabi and others — was still small and more limited in capability during that earlier period. The footing for running a business alone getting built out is itself part of the base of the increase.
In 2023, roughly four million Americans earned their primary income as solopreneurs, generating over $100,000 in annual revenue. That figure has risen substantially from the mid two-million range of the early 2010s, a period when the infrastructure enabling solo business at scale—Stripe, Substack, Kajabi, and other platforms—was still small in scale and more limited in capabilities. — From the 2023 headcount and the comparison with the early 2010s
The $10M tier nearly tripled in two years
Here is the substance. Census Bureau data is poorly suited to tracking the high-income band, so Stripe built its own proxy index — a stand-in measure used where the thing itself cannot be measured directly.
2025 headcount indexed to 2023 = 1 (Stripe proxy index)
Here, the Census Bureau's data is unfortunately more limited. Methodological changes over the years make longitudinal studies of Nonemployer Statistics (NES) data challenging. ／ To understand what is happening with higher-income solopreneurs, we constructed a proxy index of solopreneurs on Stripe, covering approximately 115 solopreneur-focused platforms and all solo Stripe Atlas businesses. ／ More than twice as many solopreneurs earned over $1 million in 2025 than in 2023, and close to three times as many crossed $5 million and $10 million. — From the limits of Census data, the construction of the proxy index, and the tier-by-tier growth from 2023 to 2025
The share doubled too
Looking only at counts, you could explain it away as a bigger denominator lifting the top. But the primary source reports that the share of solopreneurs clearing these thresholds also doubled over the same two years.
That matters. It makes it hard to read the surge as a flood of new entrants where a handful happened to hit. The primary source goes further, suggesting the newer cohorts of solopreneur businesses might actually be of higher quality than in the past.
Perhaps even more interestingly, the share of solopreneurs earning above these income thresholds has also doubled in the last two years, suggesting that—rather than the surge in business applications reflecting low-quality experimentation with a few lucky standouts— the cohorts of new solopreneur businesses might actually be of higher quality than in the past. — From the change in the share clearing those thresholds and the interpretation drawn from it
The proxy index has limits, and says so
The primary source places three caveats on itself. Non-solo businesses may be using solopreneur-focused platforms. Businesses that started solo may since have added employees. And even among the genuinely solo, the earnings distribution is almost certainly wide.
It also states that the index almost certainly understates the actual solopreneur population, since most solo operators use general-purpose infrastructure rather than solopreneur-specific platforms. It tracks direction with reasonable fidelity; it is not a basis for estimating absolute numbers.
This index almost certainly understates the actual Stripe solopreneur population, since most solo operators use general-purpose infrastructure rather than solopreneur-specific platforms. But it tracks directional trends with reasonable fidelity ／ This is a proxy. There might be nonsolo businesses using these solopreneur-focused platforms. Businesses that started as solopreneurs might have since added employees. And even for those that are in fact solo, the earnings distribution within the solopreneur category is almost certainly wide. — From the acknowledgement that the index understates the population and the three stated caveats
Why this is not a wave of fraudulent filings
When new business applications jump, the first suspicion is paperwork with nothing behind it. The primary source spends real space rebutting that.
Three grounds for rejecting the fraud explanation
New business registrations have risen roughly 40% in Australia, 70% in Finland, and 80% in France since 2017, with meaningful acceleration in 2025 alone. Multicountry acceleration across different regulatory environments argues for a more fundamental driver than fraud activity. ／ Delaware incorporations have grown approximately 40% year over year since early 2025, and they have remained at or above the pandemic-era peak every month since January 2025. ／ Businesses that signed up on Stripe after 2023 reached material transaction volumes earlier than the sign-up cohorts that preceded them. — From the three counterarguments to the fraud explanation: cross-country registrations, Delaware, and time-to-revenue
Where people incorporate signals how serious they are
The geographic breakdown carries part of the argument. Delaware incorporations have grown around 40% year over year since early 2025 and have stayed at or above the pandemic-era peak every month since January 2025. Of roughly 5.7 million business applications filed in the US in 2025, Delaware accounts for only about 75,000. It counts anyway because it is the jurisdiction of choice for founders intending to raise institutional capital or establish formal governance — not the natural destination for a passive LLC filing.
The fastest growth is in Wyoming, another jurisdiction associated with deliberate legal structuring rather than passive registration. The primary source reads the geographic composition of the acceleration as tilting toward intent.
While Delaware represents only about 75,000 of the roughly 5.7 million business applications filed in the United States in 2025, it is the incorporation jurisdiction of choice for founders who intend to raise institutional capital or establish formal governance structures, making it a strong signal of genuine business intent. It is not the natural destination for a passive LLC filing by bad actors. ／ Business applications are also growing fastest in Wyoming, another jurisdiction associated with deliberate legal structuring rather than passive registration. The geographic composition of the acceleration tilts toward intent. — From the significance of Delaware and the wider geographic composition including Wyoming
The conditions differ from the pandemic surge
The comparison drawn is the 2020 spike. Back then the Paycheck Protection Program, a US federal loan scheme for small businesses, required an EIN and little else for eligibility, which pulled in a large volume of applications with no intent to trade. Economic research found the 2020 application mix shifting toward businesses likely to be nonemployers.
There is no equivalent subsidy this time. The PPP stopped accepting new applications in May 2021, and the last forgiveness payout was in 2024. There is no financial gain from filing for its own sake, as the primary source frames it.
It required an EIN and little else for eligibility, creating strong incentives for applications with no genuine entrepreneurial intent. Economic research has found a contemporaneous increase in the composition of 2020 applications toward businesses likely to be nonemployers ／ For the current acceleration in new business applications, there is no comparable federal subsidy creating a financial incentive to file. The PPP stopped accepting new applications in May 2021, and the last forgiveness payout was in 2024. — From the character of the 2020 surge, including the prior research, and how conditions differ now
Can AI be credited for it?
This part needs reading carefully. Skim the headlines and it reads as "AI tripled the number of one-person companies." The primary source does not go that far.
The primary source stops at correlation
Its wording is that it seems likely AI is one of the primary drivers, followed immediately by the admission that untangling this effect is not always easy. By industry, there is a positive relationship between AI adoption rates and nonemployer growth, but the notable outliers are spelled out too — manufacturing on the downside, transportation and warehousing on the upside.
Even the conclusion says the preliminary evidence suggests AI advances are responsible for a meaningful portion of the growth. Nothing claims proof. Quote the numbers without carrying that register across and you have overstated the primary source.
It seems likely that AI is one of the primary drivers of both the acceleration in solo business formation and the outsized performance of solopreneurs in recent years. However, untangling this effect is not always easy. ／ The recent growth in nonemployer businesses shows a positive relationship with industry-level AI adoption, suggesting that higher AI adoption has been broadly consistent with more growth in nonemployer applications, though with notable outliers (manufacturing on the downside, transportation and warehousing on the upside). ／ Preliminary evidence of growth in AI tool usage and solopreneur growth in high-AI-adoption sectors suggests that advances in AI are responsible for a meaningful portion of this growth. — From the body text and the conclusion on AI's contribution
AI-influenced sign-ups are nearly 4x the share
Behaviour has shifted, though, and that part is quantified. AI-influenced user journeys now constitute nearly four times the share of Stripe sign-ups as they did the previous January.
Stripe splits this into two kinds. Direct signals indicate the use of AI tools to build or manage Stripe integrations. Passive signals indicate association with AI tools without necessarily AI-assisted building — AI referrals, or traffic arriving from large language models like ChatGPT that recommend Stripe to businesses researching how to accept payments. AI is not only the tool being used; it has become the front door through which businesses find services.
If you are handling your own marketing as well, pinning down the terms people actually search narrows what you have to do.
AI-influenced user journeys now constitute nearly 4x the share of Stripe sign-ups as last January. We measure two types of AI assistance among the businesses using Stripe today: direct and passive. ／ Direct behavioral signals indicate use of AI tools to build or manage Stripe integrations. ／ Passive signals indicate association with AI tools but not necessarily AI-assisted building. These are things like AI referrals, or traffic arriving from large language models like ChatGPT that recommend Stripe to businesses researching how to accept payments. — From the share of AI-influenced sign-up journeys and the two categories behind it
Why hiring stopped being necessary
The reason the primary source gives is straightforward. A single individual rarely possessed all the skills the entrepreneurial journey requires, so businesses tended to be built by groups. Sizing a market, coding an app, pricing a product, writing and executing a marketing campaign, closing a deal — those gaps used to be filled by another person.
Now AI and AI-augmented software can fill many of them. The post quotes Sam Altman's phrase, the "revenge of the idea guys." The reach of what one sufficiently motivated person can finish alone has widened, is the framing.
What AI adoption actually changes on the ground varies enormously by industry. For the practical side, see what happened when a pharmacy adopted AI and lessons from an AI cost overrun.
Part of the reason businesses historically tended to be built by groups was that a single individual rarely possesses all the skills needed in the entrepreneurial journey. Whether it's how to evaluate or size a market, code an app, price a product, write and execute a marketing campaign, or close a deal, AI (and AI-augmented software) can fill many of the gaps that founders previously turned to another human for. ／ The availability of this breadth of on-tap assistance allows anyone with sufficient motivation to go it alone. — From the explanation of why running a business alone became possible
Conclusion: how to read the shift toward solo
What this analysis establishes is that the ceiling on what one person can reach has moved up. The near-tripling at $10 million comes from a proxy index, but with the share itself rising, "a few exceptions standing out" no longer covers it.
What is not yet established is that AI caused it. The primary source stops at correlation and admits the difficulty of isolating the effect. If you are citing this internally, the accurate phrasing is not "AI tripled it" but "it tripled, and the analysts say AI is likely one of the primary drivers."
The implication is less about replacing employees than about the preparation cost of starting having fallen. If sizing a market, setting prices, and drafting marketing copy can be tried without outsourcing any of it, the decision to begin gets lighter. If you are starting from which model to use, see our comparison of the major generative AI services. Checking which terms actually have demand first tends to cut out the detours.
